An internal poll conducted by Kitchen Table Conservatives, a super PAC supporting Jack Ciattarelli, reveals that he maintains a commanding lead in the New Jersey Republican gubernatorial primary. The poll shows Ciattarelli at 42%, a 29-point advantage over his closest competitor, Bill Spadea, who is at 13%. Jon Bramnick follows with 4%, while Ed Durr and Mario Kranjac each hold 2%. Notably, 35% of Republican primary voters remain undecided, leaving room for some potential shifts in the race.
This survey, conducted by polling firm KAConsulting—with Kellyanne Conway, a member of the Kitchen Table Conservatives board, overseeing the process—suggests the Republican primary landscape has remained steady over the past eight months.
Polling Trends Reflect Ciattarelli’s Strength
Jack Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman making his third bid for governor, emerges as the most recognized figure in the race. His favorability ratings stand at 53% favorable to 9% unfavorable, showcasing his solid support base. In contrast, Bill Spadea has 26% favorable to 20% unfavorable, indicating a less favorable standing among voters.
“Four months out from the primary, the polling highlights a consistent narrative seen across endorsements, fundraising, and campaign activities,” stated the memo accompanying the poll. “Jack Ciattarelli sustains a significant lead, while Bill Spadea struggles to gain traction after seven months of campaigning.”
Trump’s Influence Dominates the GOP Voter Base
Former President Donald Trump remains immensely popular among New Jersey Republicans, with 90% favorable ratings compared to just 9% unfavorable. His influence extends deeply into the gubernatorial race, as 65% of GOP voters say they are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump. Meanwhile, 25% say it wouldn’t affect their choice, and 9% say it would make them less likely to vote for such a candidate.
When asked about the type of Republican candidate they prefer, 75% favored an “America First” candidate aligned with Trump’s policies. Only 15% supported a more traditional, establishment Republican, and 7% leaned toward a moderate, anti-Trump option.
Spadea Faces Increasing Challenges
The super PAC supporting Ciattarelli has actively worked to reduce Bill Spadea’s appeal. The poll tested various negative statements about Spadea, highlighting several controversies:
- 67% of voters were less likely to back Spadea after learning he once said, “President Trump failed. I don’t want him to run again… it is time for new blood.”
- 72% were turned off by his advice to Republicans not to vote in the 2021 governor’s race.
- 62% expressed disapproval after hearing his stance supporting “amnesty” and a “pathway to citizenship.”
- 63% reacted negatively upon learning he urged donations to Chris Christie’s presidential campaign to help Christie qualify for the debate stage.
After these statements were shared, a majority (54%) of GOP voters identified Spadea as an establishment candidate, while only 7% considered him a pro-Trump, MAGA candidate.
Fundraising and Spending Highlight PAC Efforts
The Kitchen Table Conservatives super PAC has been aggressively targeting Spadea with anti-campaign ads. As of the end of 2024, the group reported spending $215,005, with $370,315 cash-on-hand.
Comparison to June 2024 Poll
The recent results align closely with a poll conducted by the same group in June 2024, where Ciattarelli had a 33-point lead over Spadea (44% to 11%). At that time, undecided voters accounted for 36% of the GOP electorate. Ciattarelli’s favorability ratings have since improved slightly from 47%-26% to 53%-9%, while Spadea’s numbers have remained relatively flat.
Christie’s Declining Popularity Among NJ Republicans
The poll also revealed that former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie continues to face significant unpopularity within the state’s Republican base. His favorability stands at 28%, with 65% unfavorable, reflecting lingering dissatisfaction among voters.
Survey Details
The KAConsulting poll was conducted between February 5-7, 2025, sampling 600 Republican primary voters with a margin of error of ±4%.
With four months remaining until the primary, the race is shaping up to be a decisive test of Trump’s ongoing influence within the GOP and whether Ciattarelli can maintain his significant lead.
